Americans are about to get some welcome news heading into the new year.
Trump's economic team is making promises that sound too good to be true.
And Trump's advisor dropped one jaw-dropping prediction about tax refund checks that left Americans stunned.
Trump advisor promises "biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America"
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stepped in front of Fox Business cameras Thursday with a message that's got Americans reaching for their calculators.
"We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks," Hassett told host Stuart Varney.¹
The numbers backing up this prediction are striking enough to make even the most skeptical taxpayer sit up and take notice.
Hassett's claiming "just that part of it alone" will be worth "a couple-thousand-dollar refund" when Americans file their 2025 tax returns this spring.²
President Trump upped the ante Wednesday night during a prime-time address from the White House, telling the nation to expect "the largest tax refund season of all time" with some families saving between $11,000 and $20,000 annually.³
Here's what's driving these projections.
How Trump's Big Beautiful Bill created a tax refund bonanza
Congress passed Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" in July with dozens of tax changes that took effect retroactively on January 1, 2025.
The legislation bumped up the standard deduction by $1,500 per family, increased the Child Tax Credit to $2,200, and added brand new deductions for overtime pay, tip income, auto loan interest on American-made cars, and a $6,000 bonus deduction for seniors.⁴
All told, these seven provisions alone slashed individual income taxes by $144 billion in 2025.⁵
But the IRS never adjusted the withholding tables that tell employers how much to take from worker paychecks throughout the year.
That means most Americans have been overpaying their taxes all year long without realizing it.
Tax Foundation analyst Erica York explained why the refunds are so large — the IRS never told employers to adjust withholding, so workers overpaid all year.⁶
Think about that for a second.
Washington's been sitting on millions of Americans' money for 12 months when those families could have been earning interest on it themselves.
The average tax refund could climb to $4,151 for the 2026 filing season, up from around $3,151 in recent years, according to projections from investment bank Piper Sandler.⁷
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the administration expects to pay out $100 billion to $150 billion in refunds during the first quarter of 2026, working out to roughly $1,000 to $2,000 per household.⁸
But not everyone's getting the same size check.
Who benefits most from the Trump tax cuts
Households earning $60,000 to $400,000 will see the most dramatic refund jumps.⁹
Workers who earn tips or overtime pay will cash in on the new deductions for those types of income.
Homeowners in high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California will benefit from the temporary increase in the state and local tax deduction cap, which jumped from $10,000 to $40,000 for households earning under $500,000.¹⁰
Seniors are getting a special break with the new $6,000 bonus deduction for those making less than $75,000 individually or $150,000 jointly.¹¹
Parents will see an extra $200 per child with the Child Tax Credit climbing to $2,200.¹²
Most W-2 workers without kids won't see much difference from previous years, according to Cato Institute tax expert Adam Michel.¹³
He estimates over half of all taxpayers fall into this category.
That disconnect between Trump's public promises and reality for many Americans threatens to become a liability for Congressional Republicans ahead of midterm elections focused on affordability.
Low-income households could actually lose out due to cuts in Medicaid and other social programs built into the same legislation.¹⁴
Trump's economic pitch for 2026 rests on tax season
Hassett pushed back hard against a recent Fox News poll showing 44% of Americans say they're falling behind financially and 74% view the economy as "not so good" or "bad."¹⁵
He pointed to wage growth running at 3.7% while core inflation sits at just 1.6%, giving blue-collar workers an almost $2,000 raise after inflation this year.¹⁶
"I think that what happens in the end — and this is what happened in the first [Trump] term — is that people will see it in their wallets," Hassett explained.¹⁷
The Trump administration is betting big that Americans will feel better about the economy once those refund checks hit their bank accounts.
"We didn't pass the 'Big, Beautiful Bill' until the middle of the summer," Hassett noted.¹⁸
So a lot of the tax changes affecting last year weren't reflected in any tax forms people filled out at the beginning of the year.
Hassett also struck a bullish tone on the economy overall, calling November's inflation report a "blockbuster" with figures coming in cooler than economists expected.¹⁹
"We were growing in the 3% range, and we had inflation in the 1% range" during Trump's first term, Hassett said.²⁰
"And it looks like that's where we are again."
But the White House faces significant challenges beyond tax refunds.
Trump's global tariffs have created economic uncertainty, with the administration announcing $12 billion in "bridge" payments to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs.²¹
Healthcare premiums for 22 million Americans are set to spike after Republicans failed to extend health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.²²
And off-year elections last month walloped Republicans across the country, raising questions about whether voters will reward or punish the party come November 2026.
One Trump ally in the Senate isn't sugarcoating the affordability challenge.
"The price increase is permanent, in many of these cases," Senator Ron Johnson admitted.²³
"Some of these prices will never go down."
Trump and his economic team are hoping massive tax refund checks will convince Americans the economy is heading in the right direction despite persistent concerns about the cost of living.
Whether voters buy that argument next spring could determine who controls Congress for the rest of Trump's term.
¹ Kristen Altus, "Trump economist predicts 'biggest refund cycle ever,' massive checks ahead," Fox Business, December 19, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Greg Iacurci, "Trump promises 'largest tax refund season of all time.' What you can expect," CNBC, December 18, 2025.
⁵ Erica York, "Tax Refunds and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act," Tax Foundation, December 17, 2025.
⁶ Greg Iacurci, "Trump promises 'largest tax refund season of all time.' What you can expect," CNBC, December 18, 2025.
⁷ Kate Dore, "Tax Refund Alert: House GOP Predicts 'Average' $1,000 Payouts in 2026," Kiplinger, December 11, 2025.
⁸ "Trump's Scott Bessent promises $100B-$150B in tax refunds next year," Bitcoin Ethereum News, December 16, 2025.
⁹ Dore, "Tax Refund Alert."
¹⁰ "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," Wikipedia, December 17, 2025.
¹¹ Ibid.
¹² Ibid.
¹³ "Trump's Promised Big Tax Cuts Are Expected to Disappoint the Average Worker," CPA Practice Advisor, December 18, 2025.
¹⁴ Dore, "Tax Refund Alert."
¹⁵ Altus, "Trump economist predicts 'biggest refund cycle ever.'"
¹⁶ Ibid.
¹⁷ Ibid.
¹⁸ Ibid.
¹⁹ Ibid.
²⁰ Ibid.
²¹ "New year, same problems for Trump with control of Congress on the line in 2026," Roll Call, December 17, 2025.
²² "Trump Aides Reveal He's Desperately Clinging to One Key Belief About 2026," Yahoo News, December 15, 2025.
²³ Roll Call, "New year, same problems."
