Democrats promised California would never, ever go red.
Now they're watching Eric Swalwell – the congressman who had an affair with a Chinese spy – eat into their own party's votes while two Republicans sit at the top of the polls.
The same people who told you California was ungovernable by Republicans just got the most embarrassing polling news of the 2026 cycle.
How the California Governor Poll 2026 Became a Democratic Nightmare
The math is brutal and Democrats built it themselves.
A brand-new Emerson College poll – conducted just last week – shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the entire California governor's field at 17%, followed by Swalwell and fellow Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco both at 14%.
Katie Porter, the Democrat who became famous for yelling at CEOs on television, is sitting at 10%.
Tom Steyer – billionaire, failed presidential candidate – clocks in at 9% with all his money.
Xavier Becerra, who spent years as California's Attorney General while homelessness and crime went untreated, is at 4%.
Eight Democrats are dividing a pie that should be impossible to lose in the most blue state in the country.
Twenty-two percent of Democrats themselves are undecided – their own voters can't choose between Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer while two Republicans consolidate at the top.
California's Jungle Primary 2026 Was Always a Ticking Time Bomb
California has a "jungle primary" – the top two vote-getters in June advance to November, regardless of party.
Democrats created this system in 2010 thinking it would produce more moderate politicians and less partisan gridlock.
Instead, it has detonated every time Democrats field too many candidates in the same race.
It nearly happened in 2018 – Democrats came within a hair of getting locked out of multiple congressional races because their candidates split the vote in competitive districts.
The difference now is the governor's mansion is on the line.
A political simulator built from 2026 polling data puts a Republican-vs.-Republican November matchup in play if Democrats don't consolidate fast.
California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin said voters across the state are tired of decades of Democratic failure on affordability, public safety, and homelessness – and they're turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership.
She's right, and the polls prove it.
Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco Are Running to Replace Gavin Newsom – Here's What You Need to Know
Chad Bianco is not a consultant or a talking head – he's the sheriff of Riverside County who told Gavin Newsom to his face that he would not enforce COVID lockdown orders, and kept businesses in his county open.
He championed Proposition 36, which California voters passed in 2024 to increase penalties for drug crimes and retail theft – a direct repudiation of the soft-on-crime policies Democrats ran on for a decade.
Steve Hilton left Fox News, built a policy organization called Golden Together, and has been campaigning on lower taxes, deregulation, and cleaning up Sacramento's rotten political establishment.
Neither of them is apologizing for being conservative – and California voters, sick of paying sky-high costs and watching tent cities swallow their cities, are responding.
The Emerson poll found that among independent voters, Hilton leads at 22% – this isn't just Republicans breaking red.
Why Democrats Could Get Locked Out of the California Governor Race in November
Democrats know exactly what's at stake.
California has gone 32 for 32 electing Democrats to statewide office since 2010 – every single race, not a single loss.
The last Republican governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.
Gavin Newsom – who wanted to be president six months ago – is now underwater in his own home state, with 45% of California voters disapproving of his job performance in the same Emerson poll.
The Democratic political machine is scrambling to consolidate around one candidate before June, and they have four months to do it while Hilton and Bianco are already at the top of the polls and raising real money.
Hilton pulled in $4.1 million in the second half of 2025 – more than Swalwell, more than Porter, more than Becerra.
Bianco raised $2 million in the same period.
They're outpacing the Democrats in the state Democrats have owned for 15 years.
This is what happens when you run a state into the ground for three decades and then hand voters a ballot with eight options and zero accountability.
The jungle primary was supposed to save California from partisan extremism.
Instead, it may be the thing that finally hands a Republican the keys to Sacramento.
Sources:
- Spencer Kimball, "California 2026 Poll: Hilton, Swalwell, Bianco Lead Nonpartisan Primary for Governor," Emerson College Polling, February 18, 2026.
- Kaitlyn Schallhorn, "In the Race for Governor, Steve Hilton Has a New Target: Fellow Republican Chad Bianco," Orange County Register, February 7, 2026.
- Grace Hase, "Republican Steve Hilton Leads California Governor Fundraising as Large Pool of Democrats Lag," CalMatters, February 2026.
- Corrin Rankin, quoted in "Republicans' Chances of Flipping California Governor Seat, According to Polls," Newsweek, December 5, 2025.
- Arthur Schaper, "CA Governor Election 2026: Bianco or Hilton," Townhall, February 9, 2026.
