The Democrat Party lost everything in November.
But they're still convinced they did nothing wrong.
And Nate Silver just exposed one inconvenient truth about Democrats that has the Party in meltdown.
Democrat pollster drops truth bomb on his own party
Democrats got their teeth kicked in during the 2024 elections.
Donald Trump won the Presidency in a landslide, flipping every swing state and winning the popular vote for the first time since George W. Bush in 2004.
Republicans captured the Senate and held the House despite Democrats dumping over a billion dollars into trying to flip it.
You'd think Democrats would take a hard look at what went wrong.
FiveThirtyEight founder and prominent pollster Nate Silver revealed that he was shocked by how Democrats are acting like they did nothing wrong.
"I've been surprised, to some extent, by the unwillingness of a certain Democratic faction to admit they f—– up last year," Silver told Semafor.¹
Silver pointed to a recent "autopsy" from the progressive group Way to Win that literally claimed Democrats did nothing wrong except "failing to fight hard enough for progressive ideas."
The report didn't even mention Biden's disastrous debate performance that exposed his cognitive decline to 51 million viewers.
That debate performance triggered the palace coup that eventually forced Biden out of the race.
But according to Way to Win, that never happened.
Democrats bury their own election autopsy
Silver also called out Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin for canceling the release of the party's official 2024 election autopsy.
Martin spent months commissioning an internal review that included hundreds of interviews with Democrats in all 50 states.
Then he decided the American people couldn't see it.
Martin defended burying the report by claiming it would be a "distraction" from winning the 2026 midterms.
"Here's our North Star: does this help us win? If the answer is no, it's a distraction from the core mission," Martin wrote in a statement.²
Translation: If voters knew what Democrats actually learned from 2024, they'd never vote Democrat again.
The autopsy reportedly avoided key questions like whether Biden should have stayed in the race or whether Kamala Harris was the right person to replace him.
You know, the only questions that actually mattered.
Sources told CNN the report criticized Democrats for wasting money despite consistently robust funding and running a disorganized field operation that failed to persuade voters.³
But apparently those findings are too dangerous for public consumption.
California progressives gearing up for 2028
Silver also pointed to California Governor Gavin Newsom's rise as proof Democrats learned nothing.
"You'd think after last year that Democrats would be phobic of nominating another prominent elected official from California with a tired mix of vaguely progressive ideas," Silver explained.⁴
Newsom finally admitted in recent interviews that he's considering a 2028 presidential run after years of claiming he had "sub-zero interest" in the White House.
The Governor has been building his national profile by picking fights with Trump and hosting a podcast where he platforms figures like Steve Bannon.
But Newsom comes with all the baggage that sank Democrats in 2024.
He's championed providing healthcare to illegal immigrants, presided over California's homelessness crisis, and got caught dining maskless at the exclusive French Laundry restaurant while telling Californians to stay home during COVID lockdowns.
Morning Consult polling shows Newsom's support among Democrats jumped from 5% in March to 11% in June after he feuded with Trump over immigration enforcement in Los Angeles.⁵
He's now trailing only Kamala Harris in early 2028 primary polling.
Silver warned this mentality amounts to the "proverbial definition of insanity" – trying the same thing again and expecting different results.
The #Resistance bubble gets smaller
Democrats keep insisting Trump is unpopular while ignoring that he just won a mandate.
Silver suggested Newsom or even Harris could stand a chance in 2028 against Vice President JD Vance because of Trump's alleged unpopularity.
But he warned that the "#Resistance" faction is quickly becoming "a self-contained epistemic bubble."⁶
Democrats created their own alternate reality where Biden was sharp as a tack, the border was secure, inflation was "transitory," and men could get pregnant.
Voters rejected that delusion on November 5.
Now Democrats are responding by doubling down on the same failed progressive policies and California candidates that drove working-class voters into Trump's arms.
They're convinced the problem wasn't their radical agenda.
The problem was they just didn't fight hard enough for it.
Silver is one of the few Democrats willing to tell his party the uncomfortable truth – they screwed up and voters punished them for it.
But the party leadership would rather bury that message than learn from it.
That's great news for Republicans heading into 2026 and 2028.
¹ Lindsay Kornick, "Pollster Nate Silver shocked by Democratic unwillingness to 'admit they f—– up' in 2024," Fox News, December 29, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Edward-Isaac Dovere and MJ Lee, "Democrats will not release the 'autopsy' of their 2024 election loss," CNN, December 18, 2025.
⁴ Kornick, Fox News.
⁵ Julia Mueller, "Newsom's stock rises after clash with Trump," The Hill, June 21, 2025.
⁶ Kornick, Fox News.
