Kamala Harris is watching the momentum start to shift in the Presidential race.
She discovered that the state of play for 2024 wasn’t what she expected.
And Kamala Harris sat in stunned silence after this warning sign started flashing red.
A small shift in a tight race could make a big difference for Trump
Pennsylvania has become the likely tipping point state in this Presidential election that will put its winner over the 270 Electoral Vote threshold and into the White House.
Both Presidential campaigns are spending more money in Pennsylvania than any other state this year.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for the state has it tied.
One of the demographics that former President Donald Trump has improved with based on polling in this election is Hispanics.
Improvements with them could make a difference in carrying Pennsylvania on Election Day.
MSNBC National Political reporter Steve Kornacki warned that there were troubling signs for Vice President Kamala Harris with Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania during an appearance on Meet the Press.
“Some people call this the Latino belt of Pennsylvania,” Kornacki explained. “These are counties that have small mid-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations and we’ve been talking about Trump improving —relative to 2020 and 2016 among Hispanic voters.”
Kornacki noted Democrats have lost ground since the 2012 Election in some of the state’s mid-sized cities.
“Here are some of the cities in that Latino belt of Reading, Pennsylvania — it’s 70% Latino. Now it was overwhelmingly Democratic in 2020. Joe Biden won by 45 points, but look at that,” Kornacki explained. “That’s down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazleton, Pennsylvania, more than 60% Hispanic and Democrats won it narrowly — it’s now a double-digit Trump place. Allentown has come down in its margin for Democrats.”
Holding down Kamala’s margin of victories in Pennsylvania cities while running up the score in the rural areas is Trump’s path to victory in the state.
Everything matters on the margins in a race that’s expected to come down to the wire.
“Can Trump grow new support in the Latino counties, the emerging Latino counties, with large populations of Latino voters in Pennsylvania?” Kornacki asked. “That’s a key from his campaign standpoint, to the state – to the Keystone State.”
The trend is currently in Trump’s favor in those areas.
Promising trend for Republicans in Pennsylvania
Kornacki pointed to the shift in registered voters by party in Pennsylvania since the 2016 Election.
He noted that Democrats had 900,000 more registered voters in the state in 2016 – when Trump won Pennsylvania by about 44,000 votes.
“2020, look now in 2024 that’s been cut almost in two-thirds there, down to about 330,000,” Kornacki said. “There’s been a little bit of a boost for Democrats since Kamala Harris took over in registration, but the big picture trend here has been more competitive for Republicans in party registration.”
Kornancki explained that only 10 counties in Pennsylvania had Democrats made gains during the Trump era.
Wins in Georgia and North Carolina – where Trump is currently ahead – combined with a victory in Pennsylvania would give 270 Electoral Votes and send him back to the White House.
