The data for the 2024 election is starting to paint a clearer picture of where things stand.
Democrats are beginning to realize an uncomfortable truth.
And Kamala Harris just got this brutal reality check from three swing states.
Democrats’ edge in mail-in-voting shrinks
In the 2020 and 2022 elections, Democrats swamped Republicans with mail-in voting.
But 2024 is a different story.
Early returns from three key states collected by Decision Desk HQ show the mail-in vote redder than four years ago.
“According to the data, the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina and over 35% in Pennsylvania,” the New York Post reported.
In an interview with Fox News Digital, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, Jimmy Keady, explained that these vote-by-mail numbers were excellent news for the Trump campaign.
“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady stated.
Keady explained that the Trump campaign was much better prepared for a massive mail-in vote operation this year than in 2020.
The more early votes Republicans can bank now, the more resources they can pour into chasing down the types of irregular voters – in this case men aged 18-34 who don’t normally vote in Presidential Elections – that the Trump team believes can put them over the top.
The shift in GOP support for mail-in voting
In 2020 and 2022, Republican voters waited to vote on Election Day.
But banking on a massive turnout on Election Day proved costly because there was only a short window of one day to turnout the vote.
Democrats took full advantage of the early voting process and spent weeks harvesting ballots.
The Left’s vote-chasing program paid off with wins in key races that gave Democrats unified control of government in 2020 and helped grow their Senate majority and win swing state gubernatorial elections in 2022.
Republicans in 2024 took a different approach and it all began at the top.
This past spring, Donald Trump endorsed the “Swamp the Vote in the USA” initiative as part of his campaign’s “Trump Force 47” plan.
“Republicans must win and we will use every appropriate tool to beat the Democrats because they are destroying our country. Whether you vote absentee, by mail, early in-person or on election day, we are going to protect the vote. We make sure your ballot is secure and your voice is heard,” a statement from Trump announcing his endorsement of the program read.
Trump continued to back mail-in voting this fall, telling Republicans that they had to win under the rules as they currently exist.
Polls show exceptionally tight races in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Both are critical to the outcome of the election.
If Donald Trump wins both states, he wins the election.
It’s as simple as that.
And the early numbers show a positive trend in this direction.
