The media ran wild in the month of August with stories about Kamala Harris’ momentum.
But the media may be underestimating Donald Trump.
And Donald Trump grinned from ear to ear after seeing these shocking new poll numbers.
Election models favor Donald Trump
The month of August saw Kamala Harris surge in the polls as she consolidated the Democrat Party base as wayward liberals who objected to the idea of an 81-year-old and cognitively infirmed Joe Biden serving as the nominee for President.
Kamala even raced past Donald Trump to take the lead nationally, and in enough swing states that the RealClearPolitics no-tossup map showed Kamala hitting the 270 vote mark in the Electoral College.
Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “sugar high” for Kamala in the polls once she entered the race.
But like all sugar highs, Fabrizio predicted Kamala’s would come crashing down.
And that’s exactly what happened as August turned to September.
Election forecaster Nate Silver’s model showed Trump with his best chance of victory yet.
The situation is getting even better for Trump. https://t.co/miEFhYN1yh pic.twitter.com/9u58rWeF59
— Aaron Ginn (@aginnt) September 3, 2024
Polls show momentum for Trump in swing states
A key poll by the Glengariff Group for the Detroit News showed Trump leading Kamala Harris in Michigan.
đź“Š MICHIGAN poll by Glengariff Group for WDIV/Detroit News
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Harris: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 2%July 24 poll – 🔵 Harris +1
#175 (1.5/3.0) | 8/26-29 | 600 LV | ±4%https://t.co/7xfexn5C3t pic.twitter.com/3oFgEBqPF9
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 3, 2024
This was the second in state poll – an August 26-29 EPIC/MRA poll also showed Trump beating Kamala Harris – with Trump holding the lead in the critical battleground state of Michigan.
The Detroit News poll showed Trump held a commanding lead over Kamala Harris on the issues Michiganders said were the most important.
Trump led Kamala Harris by 19 points on the border.
Voters trusted Trump on the economy by a 13-point margin.
And Trump held a five-point edge over Kamala Harris on foreign affairs.
This poll backed up the Trump campaign’s theory of the case that if the election is about issues and policy, then Trump has a clear path to victory.
The poll also showed that Kamala Harris’ much-hyped attempt to campaign on “vibes” fell flat.
Just 43 percent of Michigan voters held a favorable view of Kamala Harris compared to 50 percent who held an unfavorable opinion.
Other battleground polls show a Trump lead
Insider Advantage and Trafalgar Group also produced a slate of swing state polling showing Trump leading in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
đź“Š New Swing States polling by @trafalgar_group & @InsiderPolling
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 47% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 47% (=)
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+1)
🟦… pic.twitter.com/r27HdUlRzm— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 1, 2024
But in an even more ominous development, a Survey USA poll out of Minnesota showed Donald Trump cutting Kamala Harris’ lead in half from 10 points to 5.
Trump surged in Minnesota despite Kamala picking Tim Walz – that state’s Governor – as her running mate.
A candidate’s most valuable resource is their time.
And Kamala Harris’ campaign schedule showed the public polls showing Kamala’s momentum stalling out were accurate.
Prior to Joe Biden dropping out of the race, polls showed Trump putting traditionally blue states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia in play.
Once Labor Day came and went and the stretch run kicked off, Kamala Harris’ campaign scheduled events for New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia in a clear sign that the campaign’s internal numbers show a deteriorating situation.
