Elections are won and lost on the margins.
Republicans are trying to stop the surge in the polls Kamala Harris enjoyed.
And Donald Trump got this chilling news about one key group of voters.
Harris surge eats into Trump working class support
Donald Trump’s bread and butter voting bloc is white working-class voters.
These voters are defined as white voters without a college degree.
The New York Times/Siena polls found Kamala Harris leading Trump 50 to 46 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Harris’ surge was built on the poll showing her eating into Trump’s lead with white working-class voters.
“Trump still leads, but look at that margin,” CNN data analyst Harry Enten told host Erin Burnett.Â
“It has shrunk significantly. It was 25 points back in May. It is now 14 points now here in August — nearly been sliced by half,” Enten added.
Enten explained that voters wanted change as they saw Joe Biden as a failed President.
Kamala Harris entering the race late allowed her to falsely claim the mantle of change since she was the “new” candidate and the public views Trump like a quasi-incumbent.
“This is also a change election,” Enten said to Burnett, arguing that Harris is “breaking through” with white working-class voters in the rust belt.
The 2016 election put the Democrat Party’s erosion with white working class voters on display.
“The fact that Harris is closing in on Trump with them is the big reason why she has those advantages she has now,” Enten concluded, “and a welcome thing for Democrats, definitely.”
Enten’s warning for Democrats
But Enten didn’t have all good news for Democrats.
Enten saw three really big warning signs for Democrats not to get too cocky about their chances of winning the election.
Trump still had three hidden strengths.
Enten posted on social media that Democrats needed to worry that “1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May.”
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
Democrats and the media want to crown Kamala Harris as the overwhelming favorite to win the election.
But liberals are forgetting how Donald Trump overperformed his poll numbers both in 2016 and 2020.
The current polls also show Trump’s vote share below his favorability ratings so there is a good chance there are more Trump voters out there than the polls currently show.
