Vice President JD Vance just shattered a record that's stood for over 40 years.
The 2028 presidential race is still years away, but the numbers coming out now are absolutely unprecedented.
And CNN just exposed JD Vance's 2028 numbers that left everyone stunned.
Vance Pulls Off Something Never Done Before
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten dropped a bombshell during a recent segment that has Washington talking.
Vice President JD Vance has hit 51% support in the first New Hampshire Republican primary poll — making him the only non-incumbent presidential candidate in polling history to cross 50% this early.¹
Enten searched through every available poll going back to 1980.
Not a single candidate who wasn't already sitting in the Oval Office had ever achieved majority support in early New Hampshire polls.
"JD Vance is the only one ever to get a majority of the New Hampshire vote according to the early primary polls," Enten stated.²
Vance is crushing the competition by margins nobody's seen before.
He holds a staggering 42-point lead over his closest rival, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who sits at just 9%.³
Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails at 12% in national prediction markets, while no other potential candidate even breaks 5%.⁴
"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," Enten explained.⁵
Prediction markets have Vance at 48% to win the 2028 Republican nomination.⁶
That's more than quadruple his nearest competitor.
Vice Presidents Usually Struggle
History shows that sitting vice presidents rarely win the presidency directly.
Only George H.W. Bush in 1988 managed to win as a sitting vice president since Martin Van Buren pulled it off in 1836.⁷
That's once in 188 years.
The list of vice presidents who failed to win is far longer: Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Walter Mondale in 1984, and Al Gore in 2000.⁸
Even when vice presidents secure their party's nomination, voters often decide they're ready to move on from the current administration.
But Vance isn't following the typical pattern.
At Turning Point USA's AmericaFest conference, a straw poll showed 84.2% of conservative activists backing Vance for 2028.⁹
"The movement is all-in for JD Vance in 2028, winning the most support in the history of our poll," said TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet.¹⁰
Even potential rivals are staying out of his way.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Vanity Fair that if Vance runs, he'll be the Republican nominee and Rubio will support him.¹¹
That's a sitting Cabinet member with presidential ambitions essentially conceding the race before it begins.
Trump's Shadow Follows Vance Everywhere
Some polls show Vance's lead narrowing slightly as President Trump's approval ratings have faced challenges.
A November McLaughlin & Associates poll showed Vance's lead over Donald Trump Jr. dropping to 10 points, down from 20 points in August.¹²
University of Sussex professor Mark Shanahan pointed out the obvious problem for Vance.
"The issue for Vance is that he's so closely tied to this administration," Shanahan explained. "For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president."¹³
When Trump's numbers drop, Vance suffers by association.
But other surveys paint a rosier picture for the Vice President.
An October poll from The Center Square showed Vance leading among Republicans at 38% and Independents at 41%.¹⁴
Voters 65 and older — the most reliable Republican primary voters — favor Vance over any other candidate, with 50% support.¹⁵
The Vice President has been testing the waters carefully.
Vance told Fox News host Sean Hannity that he's considered what running in 2028 might look like after the midterms.
"But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it," Vance said.¹⁶
That's the safe answer politicians give when they're absolutely planning to run but don't want to announce it yet.
Enten summarized what these unprecedented numbers mean for 2028.
"At this point, JD Vance is pulling off something historic," Enten concluded. "That is the key reason why at this point he is the far and away favorite for the Republican nomination. He's just way out ahead of the pack."¹⁷
Republicans are rallying behind Vance earlier and more decisively than any non-incumbent candidate in modern polling history.
The 2028 race is still years away, but Vance has already built a lead that no one in his position has ever achieved.
¹ Sara Sidner, "Enten: Vance Is Pulling Off Something Historic," CNN, December 30, 2025.
² Ibid.
³ Ibid.
⁴ Ibid.
⁵ Ibid.
⁶ Ibid.
⁷ Marc A. Thiessen, "A Sitting VP Has Won Once in 188 Years," American Enterprise Institute, August 27, 2024.
⁸ Katherine Schaeffer, "Most U.S. vice presidents in recent decades have sought the presidency," Pew Research Center, August 1, 2024.
⁹ Jamie Joseph, "Turning Point poll reveals conservatives 'all in' for JD Vance 2028 presidential run," Fox News, December 22, 2025.
¹⁰ Ibid.
¹¹ Eric Bradner, "It's time for Republicans to start thinking about 2028," CNN Politics, December 28, 2025.
¹² Kate Plummer, "JD Vance's Chances of Being 2028 GOP Nominee Plunging: Polls," Newsweek, November 27, 2025.
¹³ Ibid.
¹⁴ Kate Guenther, "Poll: Vance, Trump Jr. early favorites to win GOP nod for next president," The Center Square, October 19, 2025.
¹⁵ Ibid.
¹⁶ Plummer, "JD Vance's Chances."
¹⁷ Sidner, "Enten: Vance Is Pulling Off Something Historic."
