The vibe of the 2024 election turned on a dime.
This wasn’t how Democrats expected to spend October.
And CNN showed the frightening poll numbers that have Democrats in panic mode.
Cracks in the blue wall
Kamala Harris’ path to the Presidency runs through sweeping the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Even losing one state in the Upper Midwest spells certain doom for Kamala Harris.
Democrats figured the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada would trend towards.
But that’s okay because if Kamala Harris’ blue wall firewall remains intact, she would reach exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
The recent polls out of the blue wall states aren’t encouraging.
Quinnipiac showed Trump up three in Michigan and two in Wisconsin.
Insider Advantage found Trump up two in Michigan.
Emerson, the Wall Street Journal, and TIPP all released polls with Trump leading Kamala Harris.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten walked John Berman though CNN’s polling averages in the Rust Belt states that all showed Kamala Harris’ lead dwindling.
“If Kamala Harris wins these three, she most likely gets to 270 electoral votes. Take a look three weeks ago, Harris was ahead by two in Pennsylvania, two in Wisconsin, three in Michigan. Look at where we are today, the race is even tighter, even tighter than it was. Today, it’s a one-point advantage in Pennsylvania, one in Wisconsin, one in Michigan,” Enten said. “Look, that’s limited movement, but in a year in which this race has been so static for talking one point movement, one point movement, two point movements. And we see movements in all three,” Enten stated.
Momentum is a real thing in campaigns.
Once it starts going against a candidate, it is difficult to reverse.
“This is the type of thing that, at least in the public polling, makes Democrats worry,” Enten added.
Journalist Mark Halperin repeatedly reported that Democrat and Republican internal campaign polling shows Kamala Harris in even worse shape in the blue wall states.
Enten alluded to that fact in saying the public polling shifting against Kamala Harris is a confirmation of what the campaigns are seeing.
“And I think that the public polling in this case is reflected in some of that internal polling, some of that reporting that suggests that these Great Lake battleground states have certainly tightened a lot where at this point they are way too close to call,” Enten continued.
Trump polling better than ever before
Enten then got down to business on what was really worrying Democrats.
In both 2016 and 2020, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden polled far better against Trump than Kamala Harris currently is.
“We’re going to look at an average across these three states, right? Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, an average on October 11, what do you see? Well, if you look eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was way out in front in an average of these three, she was up by eight,” Enten told viewers.
“You go four years ago, Joe Biden was up by an average of seven points across these three Great Lake battleground states, yet come today, it’s just a one-point advantage for Kamala Harris across these three Great Lake battleground states,” Enten recounted.
But in both 2016 and 2020 the pollsters underestimated Trump’s support.
What worries Democrats is whatever polling margin Kamala Harris has, it would take an even smaller polling error than in 2016 or 2020 for Trump to win.
“So Kamala Harris, at least in the polling, is doing considerably worse than Biden or Clinton. And of course, Clinton lost in all three of these states. And Joe Biden barely won in all three of these states,” Enten declared.
“So when you see Harris up by just a point across these three, I think that this is really the type of thing that gets Democrats really to worry, John, because the simple fact is Kamala Harris is doing considerably worse than either Biden or Clinton was,” Enten concluded.
