A handful of battlegrounds will decide the outcome of the 2024 election.
Democrats aren’t liking what they are hearing on the ground.
And a rude awakening in this swing state has Kamala Harris preparing for the worst.
Arizona drifting away from Democrats
Joe Biden became the first Democrat since 1996 to flip Arizona blue.
Media pundits heralded that win as a sign the political realignment of the suburbs into the Democrat Party would put the Republican Party at a generational disadvantage in the Electoral College.
Four years that looks like a pipedream.
Arizona is ground zero for the border crisis.
In the first four months of 2024, 250,000 illegal aliens marched across the border and into Arizona.
The anger at border czar Kamala Harris for flooding the state with migrants is reflected in the voter registration data.
For years, Democrats chipped away the Republican edge in the number of registered voters.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris opening the border changed all that.
Democrats are now bleeding voters off the rolls and Republicans are seeing a surge of support.
Democrats are now the number three registered group of voters in Arizona, falling behind independents.
“In Arizona, reaching across the aisle is not merely an exercise in virtue but a necessity. Since 2020, Democrats have lost nearly 100,000 voters registered to their party. According to data compiled by Arizona-based strategist Stacy Pearson from state registration reports, Republicans now have more than 250,000 more registered voters than Democrats. And independents now have more than 100,000 more registered voters than Democrats, a shift from 2020 when Democrats surpassed indies by 20,000,” NOTUS reports.
“The enthusiasm is as high as it could possibly be for Harris, but there is a numbers problem in Arizona,” Arizona-based strategist Stacy Pearson told NOTUS. “There is just a mathematical complication in Arizona that other states don’t have. None of the other swing states have lost Dems the way Arizona has.”
Kamala Harris supporters fret the numbers game
The voter registration numbers combined with the public poll – The New York Times/Siena show Trump leading Kamala Harris by five in Arizona and USA Today/Suffolk found Trump holding a six-point advantage – left Kamala Harris supporters pessimistic about her prospects.
“If you would rank the seven battleground states, people think it’s the least likely she wins, which is surprising considering the confidence when she first replaced Biden,” a Democratic operative admitted to NOTUS.
Mesa Mayor John Giles is one of the establishment RINOs backing Kamala Harris.
And Giles worried about Kamala Harris’ chances in Arizona.
“Probably not,” Giles said, when NOTUS asked if he thought Kamala Harris could win Arizona.
And just to make Democrats even more depressed, Giles warned Kamala Harris was about to become the next Democrat nominee to win a meaningless popular vote victory but lose the Electoral College.
“I mean, the answer is, nobody knows the answer to that question. I think the thing that scares me is — I’ll put money on her winning the popular vote for the United States. That’s going to happen. But she might, you know, join the Hillary Clinton-Al Gore club,” Giles concluded.
